Wednesday , December 2 2020

Australian consumer price index for Q1 2019 today, preliminary review

Official inflation figures in Australia are expected today for the quarter from January to March of 2019. Coming to 0130GMT on April 24, 2019


The numbers (from earlier):

CPI title

  • expected is 0.2% q / q
  • ago was 0.5%
  • y / y expected 1.5%, before 1.8%

average value – a measure of core inflation

  • expected 0.4%
  • before 0.4% q / q
  • y / y expected 1.7%, previously 1.8%

Weighted Median – the other main measure:

  • expected 0.4%, before 0.4%
  • y / y expected 1.6%, before 1.7%

Quickly say what to expect by:


  • consensus sees a soft result
  • This would help reduce the hurdle for the potential fall in RBA's prices this year, although the bank seems more likely to develop into the labor market, and the decent work report last week will not make RBA reduce interest rates before May Fed elections


Consumer inflation cuts RBA target by 2-3% in 2018

  • The key to this lack of price pressure is: weak wage growth; housing decline; slow consumer spending; and intense retail competition.
  • While AUD weakens the passage of higher import prices to consumers is limited.

we expect overall inflation of only 0.1% qtr 1.4% per annum.

  • Additional forces at work include: fuel price drop … and a seasonally soft quarter

Basic inflation is expected to be 0.3% … 1.6% per annum.

  • Basic inflation will remain well below the bottom of the RBA target group, as lowering housing costs keeps modest inflationary pressures elsewhere. Covering competitive deflationary pressures on consumer goods, and it is hard to see that base inflation is breaking faster in a short time.
Schedule also from Westpac:
Official inflation figures in Australia for the period January to March 2019


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