Feedback with the Arctic has a huge impact on climate change. A new study looks at its global economic impact more closely. ( Pixabay )
Climate change is changing the world with an ever faster speed with endless effects on Earth's life, including the world economy, where the impact can cost trillions of dollars.
The economic impact of the Arctic
In the Arctic, the warming climate causes eternal frozenness to melt and release an abundance of carbon in the atmosphere. Moreover, the melting of the ice means that the surface of the Earth absorbs even more heat from the sun.
All these effects accelerate global warming, while Arctic feedback adds a high cost to the economy – nearly $ 70 trillion, according to a new study published in the magazine. Nature Communications,
However, the interdisciplinary team of the study notes that if the world maintains global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the additional economic impact will fall to $ 25 trillion. This is at pre-industrial levels, which is in line with the purpose of the international agreement in Paris.
"Our findings support the need for more active mitigation measures to keep the global warming below 2 degrees," said Dmitry Yumachev, lead author at the Lancaster University Center for Sustainable Development. He adds that the authors hope that the study will open doors for more assessments of non-linear processes in the climate system even outside the Arctic.
Researchers Analyze PCF, SAF
With simulations, Yamashev and other researchers have studied the strength of the carbon-free feedback (PCF) and Surface Alternate Feedback (SAF). The former is driven by the extra carbon released by the melting of the ever frozen surface while the latter is driven by the extra solar heat absorbed by the surface due to the melting ice and the open ground.
Most of the climate policy studies that have been conducted suggest permanent SAF but zero PCF. But recent data suggests that PCF is actually stronger. In addition, the power of the two constantly changes in non-linear ways as the climate gets warmer.
"Arctic ice and terrestrial snow currently account for about a third for global feedback with albedo," said Yamashev. "These two components will reach peak values for global temperatures within the scope of the Paris Accord, but if the climate gets warmer, the summer and spring of the sea ice and snow cover on the ground will go further north and the feedback to albedo will weaken "
He adds that they have found that the feedback to eternal frozenness is getting stronger in a warmer climate.
How much will climate change in the world cost?
The Arctic's non-linear feedback from the new study adds to the total cost of climate change.
Previous estimates of total cost of climate change, with constant Arctic feedback, amount to $ 600 trillion. In a scenario of 1.5 degrees Celsius, non-linear PCFs and SAFs add $ 25 trillion to the global price, adding another $ 34 trillion in a 2 degrees Centigrade scenario.
In the end, the results of the study show that lowering global warming is a prospect that is more favorable to the global economy. It will not only preserve the environmental consequences, but also prevent costs from rising.
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