Sunday , January 17 2021

Cash base: BCAA said it would achieve its target in December

With this, the government will keep unchanged one of the pledges promised to the IMF, and that better results come, at least in the eyes of Italian technicians Roberto Caldarelli, the person in charge of the fund to control the number of Argentina. For the agency, stick to your firm strategy of not speeding up the monetary base and keeping it in line with the agreement reached last September; when the targets were renegotiated and the payments made were withdrawn by December 2019; when they were originally negotiated by 2020. The seasonal expansion movement since the last month of the year has been part of these negotiations, and BACR's intention is that both the IMF and the market confidence that the target will remain on track in December. Centrally, it is a time when the government needs to expand its cost base to meet its internal fiscal commitments by the end of the year, which may cause some kind of concern among private. Especially before announcing greater availability of resources to meet the needs of working capital to cover messages for a higher level of transfer of peso to the most vulnerable sectors. The announcement the BCRA wants to take is that the availability of funds is covered; and that, furthermore, the signal to be sent is that there will be no Leliq renewal.

The government confirms that, in the case of this variable, the expansion of the monetary base and the commitment to keep it under control may be the head that needs to be better qualified than the IMF. In November, the BCRA exceeded its target of not increasing it, maintaining its monthly average of $ 1,256 billion, $ 14,500 million under the target, and $ 4,000 million above the October average. The increase in the base versus October was explained by the company due to the $ 15 billion increase in unpaid bank reserves, partly offset by the $ 11 billion cash cut. In order to meet the target, BCRA has stepped up Leliq's auction last month, with an average rate that is gradually decreasing until parking reaches 60.8% by the end of the month. In the first two days of December, BDRA decided to break through 60%, putting it above 59%, the level it maintains. Closing yesterday was 59.23%. Overall, they are 7.4 percentage points below 73.5%, which the variable reached on October 8. All of this with a kind of change that sailed comfortably in the No Interference Area, closer to the floor of 36 pesos on average from the ceiling near 45 pesos. The scheme, even with the external pressure that emerged this week due to the international noise coming from the US crisis. and China, the difficulties in the UK for brethy and internal conflicts in France; it was backed by traquilidad, with a dollar that closed yesterday, but at 38.79 pesos; also closer to the floor of the area's roof.

In October Sandleris assured that the pledge of his strategy's success so he was trusted before the market (and the IMF) to maintain a controlled monetary base. In particular, he said that "the key element of this scheme is that the monetary base will increase to zero by June, with seasonal adjustment in December, which is strictly, clearly and easily verified, and we expect it to be effective in control The theory behind it is also quite simple: the economy will not be overweight. "

By definition, the strategy implies that the government will retain its primary commitment to the IMF, but that monetary policy will continue at least until the end of this year and the first quarter of 2019. Even this, even under the control of the December Leliq , the stock of letters is currently close to Pesos 720 million, due to strong demand from banks for this tool. Financial entities should first see the December strategy to turn the signal into local markets, indicating that despite the seasonal expansion of the monetary base, this is in line with the IMF and the over-achievement of an annual target.

By November, the annual growth rate of the monetary base slowed down to 39%, from the previous 40.9% inherited by Luis Caputo's leadership.

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