Four new election studies pay three trends and surprise. On the one hand, they confirm that the gap between Alberto Fernandez and Mauriceio Macri in the presidential race narrows, although The candidate for Frente de Todos still has an advantageThey also confirm that polarization is deepening. The exception is in one of the elections, which talks about equality in the intention to vote for PASO. He is the only one who shows the equality of the 13 to whom he has agreed hunting horn after closing the lists at the end of June.
New measurements that go beyond all national measurements are from consultants Ricardo Ruvier and Associations, CIGP, Real-Time Data (RTD) and Louis Costa and Associations,
The pole is that of RTD, which is what a Exact draw of 37%In the other Rubywhich is this one more advantage is given by the former head of the Cabinet by Christina: 4.4 points.
These four studies have been added to another 9 who have already published this newspaper and show a difference of 1.7 to 7.6 points, always in favor of Alberto Fernandez.
Rouvier & Asociados: 4.4 points of K
He is a consultant who works historically for Kirchner continues to bring their number to the world K, However, for months, their number coincides with other consultancy services, including those closest to the government.
His latest work includes a telephone survey of 1200 cases, It was made between 6th and 11th July and presented with a tolerable error of +/- 2.8%.
In the battle that faces PASS, he puts it after Frente de Todos first with 39.6%, with Macri-Pichetto at 35.2%. The rest accrue: Lavagna 9%, Del Caño 4%, Espert 3.9%, Castañeira 0.3%, Other 1.9%, White / would cause 2%, do not know 4.1%.
The Show of Ruby how narrowing the distance: from 8.5 points in April, to 5.3 in May, 4.7 in June and 4.4 in July. The decrease begins to approach the limit of error of the study.
The sound it also includes measurements for a possible vote, although many consultants believe that with greater polarization it would not be strange that one of the two candidates of the crap reaches 45% and wins in the first round.
About a Round two, Rouvier sees total parity: 43.7% of K against 43.1% of the ruling party.
The monthly development of these data was more hesitant than the intention to vote for PASO. From a very narrow battle in February, around 38, Kirchner was at the top in March and April (3 or 4 points), but then the changes in May and June (3 points) prevailed. Now he turned to technical withdrawal,
CIGP: 3.38 bonus points K
The consultancy in the field of image and political governance (CIGP) is signature girl, which measured the intention to vote in the last election and had good predictions during the general elections in 2017.
The latest national survey is from the end of June (26 to 28), 1,242 cases phone and online, with a tolerance of +/- 3.5%.
He measured four formulas and Alberto F. gets an advantage of 3.38 points: 39.61% vs. 36.23% of Macri. At the beginning of the year, with Christina as a pre-candidate, the distance was slightly wider, 5.37 points (37.55% to 32.18%).
In the face of a possible vote on CIGP Makri goes to the front, within the bounds of the error: 43% vs. 41.30% by Alberto F. He also measured it for the second round of Lavay, who, although presented as a favorite in the chaos stitch chapters, figure below against Candidate All Front (31.40% to 39.61% ) and Together for Change (27.78% to 38.16%).
Luis Costa and the Association: 2.8 Points of Preference K.
This sociologist works from 2010 to 2016 in the consulting firm Ipsos Mora y AraujoIn 2018 he set up his own company and made measurements in the country and Latin America.
His latest study circulates through Casa Rosada. This is a survey of about 1,000 phone cases completed on July 5, with a tolerable error of +/- 2,8%. Costa does daily monitoring of 100 cases (on working days), with reductions and results every two weeks.
In your last job, pair K advances by 2.8 points: 39.7% against 36.9% of Macri-Pichetto. Lavagna-Urtubey have 7.4%, Espert-Rosales 5.1%, Del Caño-Del Plá 2%, Others 4.7%, Blanco) would have challenged 2.7% and did not know 1.6%.
About Alberto F.-CFK has an advantage but insignificant, Only 1.5 points: 45.3% vs. 43.8% of Macri-Pichetto.
Real Time Data (RTD): Equal
The company was set up this year and made daily updates. It is run by Nicholas Solari, a political scientist and a Former polyarchy, "Our services are intended for institutional clients, some of them foreign funds who want to get public opinion every day in this election year," said Solari.
His latest report includes a survey of 1,279 cases phone numbers surveyed between 1 and 11 July, with a tolerable error of +/- 4.7%.
After the lists are closed, the first signature that gives equality to STEP: 37 to 37, with Lavagna at 10%, Espert at 3%, Del Caño at 2%, Others at 2% and 9% from the undefined.
The work carried out by El Economista, also shows the improvement of Macri (36% believe that the country will be better in 12 months, against 22%, which thinks it will be worse) and in the discharge (37% against 30% in January).
The rest, between 1.7 and 7.6 points of K advantage
Prior to these studies, hunting horn published national data for 9 other studies: Analogue, Management and Fitness, Opinaia, Reale Dallatorre, BTG Pactual, Opina Argentina, Synopsis, Federico Gonzalez and Gustavo Cordoba.
They showed differences between 1.7 and 7.6 points, always in favor of binomial K. If averaged by 13 published studies, Alberto F.-Cristina has a 38.58% against 34.83% of McClure-Picketto, Difference (average) of 3.75 points.
In parallel, they also submitted data from two consultants who measure the government and the front at all. Isonomia, one of the favorites of Casa Rosada, will keep Alberto F. three points above (37 to 34); while Hugo Jaime, another historical consultant associated with Peronism is the only one who would have predicted a victory without the run-off: 44.4% to 30.7% for the double K.