The day after STEP left behind an economic and financial scenario that few imagined last week. The spillover effect on the economy as a whole will be negative.
Here are some clues to find out what happened to important variables.
More than 20% sought the intention of big and small investors to dollarize against the negative economic impact that the market saw as a huge triumph for the opposition. The central bank left it above the upper limit of the non-intervention area and set aside only $ 105 million, in three bids.
Monetary policy of the Central Bank
As expected, the Central Bank decided to tighten its monetary policy in order to counter the rise in the exchange rate. Yesterday, he agreed to pay an annual rate of 74.782% to renew the maturity of letters of liquidity for nearly $ 100,000 million. On Friday, that percentage was below 64 percent.
The consumer price index from July will be known on Thursday, which may increase by 2.5%. What happened to the dollar yesterday puts an end to the downward trend in inflation observed in April. The rise in the exchange rate as of yesterday puts pressure on prices until the end of the year. 40% annual inflation projections should now be archived. Economic activity: Activity as a whole, as well as industry and construction, recovered for two months in April and May and broke the trend in June. The government hoped to resume the pace as it relied on a triumph in the STEP that would ease the financial situation. It may not happen.
The commitment was to restore purchasing power through a combination of low inflation and increased wages due to the parity effect. This phenomenon is already observed in official salaries in the private sector. This uncertainty and rising inflation are expected to interrupt this process.
Dealerships have already stopped selling until they figure out where the exchange rate is parked. The home appliance chains did something similar.
Deposits and loans
The financial sector will be under pressure because of the risk of withdrawing deposits from savers who may try to convert to the dollar if they do not contain a shot that has already watched the price of the dollar. On the credit side, it is expected to move even further than observed so far.
The government restores confidence indices, economic expectation indices and the expected inflation index. I was hoping this trend would solidify by October. Obviously, these variables will suffer a sharp deterioration.