Monday , August 2 2021

Leakage is an absurd wound The departure of …



The capital flight rose to $ 27,320 million in 2018. This is the net amount between the purchase and sale of foreign currency by the private sector. The figure is a record in recent years, surpassing that of 2008 (23,098 million) and is equivalent to nearly 6 points of gross domestic product. The capital flight recorded monthly peaks in the third quarter, when strong devaluation and rising interest rates led to a reduction in the amount of foreign currency accumulated by the private sector. But the relative stability of the exchange rate in December with the exchange rate of about 38 pesos has again provoked interest in dollarisation. The Central Bank report reports that 980,000 customers have acquired foreign currency last month, about 100,000 more customers than in November. The number of people who have made sales in foreign currency has been reduced to take advantage of the exchange's benefits. About 570,000 people offered dollars, against almost 700,000 in November. The net purchase of dollars in December was 862 million, as in November this figure was half ($ 408 million), although in the same month of the previous year it reached $ 2700 million.

The strong outflow of foreign currency from the economy was due not only to private accumulation. Tourism was another source of external red in 2018. Guido Sandleris's stock exchange balance stated that last year there was a deficit of $ 6800 million for travel and maps abroad. population. In December, red in the tourism sector was $ 313 million, with an annual decline of 49%. This figure is also below the average monthly deficit recorded in 2018. This lower dollar production is explained by the effect of the exchange rate rise, which has increased the price of tourism abroad. The clear example is when traveling to Brazil. This summer, 70% of people who traveled to Brazilian beaches declined.

In December, dollarisation is not only returned by private customers. The Central Document stated that banks have increased the common position of changes (ie owning dollarised assets) to $ 1597 million and found it at $ 6576 million. Banking companies, although in recent months have earned significant profits from Leliq, have begun to increase their foreign currency assets with the help of an asylum factor. Investment funds have also decided to use some of their investments. December was the 9th consecutive month in which net outflows were reported through portfolio investment. The net outflow to disarm positions in pesos is 650 million.

The central bank noted the increase in international reserves in 2018. "Reserves increased by $ 14.613 million to finish in December 65,806 million," he said. These figures were possible despite the strong outflow of capital and the exchange rate, thanks to the Monetary Fund, the Bank of China and other agencies. "In December, swap currencies earnings with China stood at 8700 million dollars," the person said. He added that "the repayment of the third installment of the IMF credit facility has also been written down to 7640 million, and last year the Central Bank lost much of its foreign exchange intervention reserve and had to resort to additional currencies , mainly from the IMF, and monetary authority could not actually buy currencies throughout the year, and the increase in reserves was only explained by the rise in foreign currency debt.

The new monetary program, which has been in place since October, limits the ability of the Central Bank to participate again on the stock market. The Fund does not want to repeat the mistakes of 2018 and in practice eliminates the margin of monetary authority to go out and buy and sell currencies. The central one, for example, can only acquire up to $ 50 million a day to try to move the exchange rate to the non-intervention area. You can not buy more than $ 1000 million a month. This is a very small figure if you take into account the total volume of purchases on the stock market. If you have to sell because there is a mileage, I can only do it with up to 150 million a day when last year there were days when the market began to demand 1500 million in a day.


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