Sunday , June 13 2021

The decline in rates and the exchange rate did not stop the growth of deposits in pesos and dollars



During the fourth month of validity of an extremely demanding and contractual policy for issuance of peso for transactions and floating exchange rate with intervention only at exit from the intervention zone of 30% the virtuous behavior on the path of saving the Argentineans was observed.

Partial data of the Central Bank on deposits in the banking system at the end of the third week of January show a very dynamic growth of time deposits in pesos from the entire private sector, attracted by a nominal income of the order at 45% per annum.

This expansion rate is close to 10% compared to the average for the same period in December: inflation is almost fourfold. And more than twice the interest rate.

So far, it seems that this is a natural phenomenon against such an interest rate, in a scenario in which the exchange rate not only does not stabilize, but even diminishes. Although the monetary authority went out to buy up to $ 390 million so far this month, the currency is traded below the zone without interference.

But what seems curious and even unforeseen is that during this period private deposits in dollars, which averaged $ 29,555 million in three weeks in January. This is a record value that exceeds the average level of the same period in December by more than 4%.

The overall result of these movements is that the total amount of private time deposits – in pesos and dollars in savings accounts and also over a longer period of time – amounts to an average equivalent to just over $ 56,800 million, to 3,700 million dollars in just 30 days.

Thus was approximately $ 58,700 million a year earlier, when pessos stocks represent a higher share due to the backwardness of the exchange rate then observed, as a strategy that once again showed its failure as an anchor of inflation.

While the strong roots prevail in the dollarization of portfolio of agents with capacity to generate surplus resources to their current needs leads to the maintenance of the growth of foreign currency depositsdespite the fact that during the month they do not get a return or even lose nominal when converting to pesos.


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