The market discusses the Kavallo thesis about the dangers of the amplitude of the tape before a possible leap
yesterday extended its bearish road to the local market, dropping by more than 1%. He showed that official purchases (that although they were not planned for this, they are also designed to restrict their movements) they can not even support it.
The ticket was close to drilling $ 37 for wholesale (at an average of $ 37.03) and $ 38 a trading level ($ 38.02), which lost 37 and 46 cents respectively. the previous one. The market again offered an imbalance in supply. All despite the efforts of the Central Bank (BCRA) to tone up demand for their purchases. Yesterday, he bought another 50 million dollars and wins $ 390 million in the month.
Thus, it extends to nearly 2% of its floor space ($ 37,715 a day or 37,787 for Monday) and up to 32% with a ceiling of $ 48,807 / 48,90 in the non-residential area. interference in the exchange scheme in force since October, a pass that some analysts are beginning to perceive as risky if the market – for some reason – sharply changes its trend,
The debate about the dangers of maintaining this scheme without major adaptations was put by former Minister Domingo Kavallo. from an article he published a few days ago on his blog. There he describes the "high degree of non-interference area" as "the biggest weakness of the current monetary and exchange policy" of the government.
"An unexpected internal or external event that frightens depositors in peso can lead to a devaluation of more than 30% in a few days and it is known that in circumstances like these many people who have deposited in pesos decide to go to dollars" In addition, restrictions on market interventions are abolished.
For the attractive interest rates paid by banks in recent months (and subsidized partly through Leliq, BCRA) and the feeling of a dollar without a further upward path (after rising from 120% to 10 months), about $ 250,000 million private equity continues to represent new fixed deadlines, from October to now. Most of them are short-term (30 days) and have been resumed due to the stability or decline of the dollar, something the monetary authority is now seeking to revise by providing incentives through reserve – since February – subjects. long-term placements.
The downward trend of the dollar on the local market is partly due to a better risk prediction, which is again evident in the markets; the subsequent global weakness of the dollar (when the postponement of US interest rates is postponed), as well as the impetus that Bolsonaro has given to the reality in Brazil.
But over the past two days, it has not happened by chance – after Guards President Guido Sandler said from Davos (Switzerland) that this subject would not "be in a hurry to inject pessos," suggesting he would be cautious. raising the $ 50 million self-imposed limits to interventions and hence encouraging conditions to accelerate its downward trend.
Following this definition, the US dollar fell from $ 37.56 to $ 37.03 for two days on a market that contracted a little over $ 1520 million in cash, leaving the offer accelerated.
And this happened despite the fact that in parallel with the injection of pesos caused by his interventions (about $ 2,730 million in the last 48 hours), he expanded another $ 22,500 million through partial renewal of Leliq and dropped from 56.80 to 56, 60% per annum. reference rate.
Frequency of dissemination
"The pace of the peso has much to do with the strength of the real and good global climate, but undoubtedly also relies on the situation on the local market, which is now unbalanced for the supply side (due to the sharp decline in demand for dollars). import and accumulation), an imbalance that the current level of rates seems to worsen, "said Miguel Zelónka, economist at EconViews.
"What we see is BCRA, which is trying to counter the current market, but with insufficient volume of purchases to change it, given that even if interest rates are lowered, there are incentives to revise the portfolios "says Matthias Carugati. , Chief Economist at Management & Fit. She agrees that the plan has little flexibility to adapt to market changes. "This is very pro-cyclical because the IMF wants it this way and is a lender of last resort, but in a pre-election year, I would like the BCRA to have the power to intervene with greater force if necessary," he says.