Thursday , January 28 2021

The Indec will spread inflation from November, which will impact the economic recession

The Indec will release on Thursday this latest inflation index of 2018, which will be in line with November. This indicator, as expected from private estimates, will mark apparent delays compared to September and October, which represents the highest inflationary data for the Macri age. In this low, according to economists, the new monetary policy of the Central Bank, which greatly limits the amount of circulating pesos and economic recession.

With the consumer price index for November, the price increase for the first 11 months of the year will exceed 42% and is expected to reach about 45% in December, the highest since 1991. This will be a difficult challenge for the government, which seeks that in 2019 inflation will be 23%, and even know that he expects that this is the number that is negotiated in the next pay parity.

Ratings from private consultants talk about Inflation rate in November is between 2.5 and 2.9%According to the Statistics Institute of Workers (ITU), labor costs for union workers have increased by 2.9% this month, and for these measurements they have reached 47.2% in the last 12 months.

Inflation shows a slowdown compared to the rise in prices in the previous months, when it is around 6%. On the other hand, Orlando Ferreres's economic research center estimates that November inflation was 2.5% per month. He pointed out that the products with the highest frequency were "Food and drink, together with different goods", by 2.5% and 5.8%, respectively.

Central Bank President Guido Sanduris said this week at the International Economic Conference that inflation "there is still much work to do, but I think we are moving in the right direction. "

He added in this sense that "most countries in the region and the world managed to live with low inflation". And he thinks "there is nothing in Argentina
to determine that we can not live with one-digit inflation. It is not achieved from one day to the next".

Analysts believe that this price slump in November was affected, besides not having had any specific increases, as in the previous months, in the hard currency of the monetary authority that cooled the economy with high interest rates.

But after this partial brake on inflation, the government may face a new re-acceleration in December. Trade unions re-opened alliances, plus the second half of the bonus, and holiday consumption could warm up prices.

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