Monday , November 29 2021

The markets have already voted: increase in shares in the previous STEP


Leading stocks on the Buenos Aires stock market rose 7.9% yesterday, 48 hours after PASO, while the country's risk fell by almost 4% due to Argentina's sovereign bond rise. New election polls have intoned markets that are staking in near-even elections this Sunday, which leaves the ruling party well-positioned for next October's elections.

The strongest increases of the day were for macro bank roles by 11.4% and Grupo Financiero Galicia by 9.8%, while Pampa Energía's shares also rose sharply, 9.4%. S&P Merval has reached a new record in pesos, given investors' expectations of a favorable outcome for PASO formalism.

The leading panel of Argentinean bags and markets jumped 7.9% and exceeded 44,000 units for the first time since closing at 44,355.09 points.

The risk of the Argentine side dropped by almost 4% and the dollar bonds rose to almost 3% before the investor at the last moment bet in favor of a good performance of the ruling party, the website says,

The index, measured by JP Morgan Bank, fell 35 basis points to 860 units, a situation that reflected an average improvement of 1.1% on government bonds in dollars.

"The market seems to see that the indefinite would turn at the last moment in favor of Macri, bridging the gap with the Fernández-Fernández formula.

Campaign closes

Closing the campaign was in search of this vote and Kambiemos was expected to be more effective, "he said. Pablo Kastania, Director at Balanz Capital.

While averaging the wheel on the market, a poll with good numbers for the ruling party was circulated. Immediately stocks and bonds began to grow strongly and with very good turnover. The stock traded volume jumped 129% to just over $ 2 billion. In the meantime, optimism about the positive election results for the government has also expanded to New York, where the shares of Argentine Wall Street companies have reached more than 10%. The trend was driven by the roles of Loma Negra (10.75%) and Banco Macro (10.50%).

There were also strong increases: Pampa Energía (9.72%), Grupo Financiero Galicia (9.21%), Banco Francés (8.36%), Supervielle (8.35%) and Edenor (8.09%). On the contrary, the ADRs that register casualties are Tenaris (-1.51%) and Terni (-1.55%).

"This is a positive sign that has been reflected in recent studies prior to STEP," he told the newspaper the economist Gustavo Ber,

In turn, for Diego Martinez Burzaco, director of MB Inversiones, appeared among investors "the expectation of a favorable election result for the ruling party". It is that "recent polls this week have shown that there is implicit national parity and repositioning of the governor of Buenos Aires, Eugene Vidalagainst the opposition candidate, Axel Kitchiloffwhich increase the chances of the ruling party, "he added.

"Obviously, the market is strongly betting that these latest polls will be seen in reality this Sunday," he added.

Point of view

Most investors tend to wait reasonably for the outcome of the PASS

By Gustavo Berr / Director of the Ber-Inversiones Studio

After the rear wheels rebound, Wall Street resumes a more cautious tone while keeping track of the yuan's dynamics, though domestic assets show a positive march, betting from abroad before PASS, and thus the dollar eventually closes in peace. With that in mind, S&P Merval advanced strongly by 7.8%, driven especially by ADRs of banks and energy companies, as it is one of the most liquid roles where last-minute bets are concentrated on PASS funds outside, looking to predicted the result of Sunday's election. Bonds were also more resilient, earning an average of 1.5% of their dollar quotes in major references, with the country at risk of loosening to 870 basis points as foreign funds bowed to last-minute bets in the headlines.

Beyond the miracle of the last wheels, Wall Street resumed its negative tone as fears of a trade war between the US and China continue, as does the evolution of the yuan as pressure on central banks rises before the recession scenario.

In the last round before the decisive STAP, local assets were firmly opposed to even the downward hike that Wall Street resumed and infected newcomers, with some foreign funds encouraging last-minute aggressive bets seeking a favorable election outcome. the ruling party.

However, most investors still tend to reasonably wait for what was left of the primary to the next 27-O scale, which can heighten the investment response and thus instability. In an environment of hyperpolarization, the main political forces will monitor not only the difference in votes, but also the proximity to 45% and the percentage of participation, together with the effects of the "brought" by the challenging external climate.

At the stock exchange level, despite the global aversion to risk, the wholesale dollar finally closed practically stable at $ 45.25, as it was deflated by the highest domestic days thanks to the greater optimism of foreign funds before the main . Next week's monetary agency strategy will depend on the outcome of the choice and the readership of investors, and perhaps it will expand the mix of futures intervention and the high Leliq rate, or if demand intensifies the currency to add to its arsenal the sale of reserves, given that the tranquility of the dollar – with limited volatility even in adverse external climates – will continue to be its primary objective in the 27 elections.

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