A new scenario about fragmentation and partisan involvement from social organizations emerged in public spaces and triggered warnings in the Government. After almost three years of negotiations, agreements, concessions and mutual benefits, reality began to change radically. The beginning of the election year and the economy at the crisis climax offered objective conditions to put the risk that peace equilibria were unstable where officials and social leaders coexisted.
Increasing tension, unfulfilled agreements, trimming roads without warning, discourse radicalization, intra-sector competition for more profits for each organization (or every new faction), escalating demands. These are facts and signs that the Government began to register with concern a few months ago. In the last weeks, the upward curve was noticed and proposals that were hostile were reflected with strength last Wednesday. That day, the demonstration that actually interrupted traffic at 9 de Julio Avenue surprised the interlocutors of social movements. Within the organization, it was recognized that the measure was adopted with several difficulties and without adequate internal discussion. Moderate is finally dragged by the most aggressive. Interfere with contexts with a fragility surplus.
Everything shows that no one wants to lose the poster in this new dispute to position itself in the opposition space and, at the same time, benefit the State. The latter will not be so easy: deviations from aloof social leaders are taking up space for the most sympathetic and sympathetic officials of social problems.
It can be said that Juan Grabois, leader of the popular economic movement (CTEP) movement and close relations with the Pope, described the beginning of a new stage on the day he escorted Cristina Kirchner to the court, cited in the cause of the corruption logbook.
In fact, the starting point should be on road 9 de Julio on February 21, when the Moyano clan surrounded themselves with Grabois and other social references, such as Daniel Menéndez, from Barrios de Pie; then Cegetista Juan Carlos Schmid wins; leaders from two CTAs, Hugo Yasky and Pablo Micheli, and a large delegation of Kirchner's representatives who, at the foot of the stage, headed Máximo Kirchner.
This is the beginning of an approach and dynamic meeting in the action of sectors and actors that until that time did not hide (and some emphasize) differences in origin, militancy, ethical behavior, political projects and strength building. Even with many discrepancies, some of those who have been suspicious since the beginning of the end of Kirchner's administration are now beginning to unite in their growing confrontation with the Government and at the height of the possibility of Cristina's nomination. The reasons are many, but the illusion of regaining power in the face of the collapse of the government's popularity because of the economic crisis is a powerful engine for all of them. Not only for Kirchner, who lost control of the national state and Buenos Aires, or Moyano, the jaqueados for Justice. This is also for the leaders of social organizations, despite the special treatment they enjoy, especially from the Ministry of Social Development, which leads Carolina Stanley. In its management there is a key to the problems. Stanley has been a reliable interlocutor's social leader, but also a skilled manager who takes over intermediary power and hacks client networks from some of them by managing the resources provided by the State to the most vulnerable sectors. There are social plans including, but also other contributions, such as funds to maintain canteens, snack bars and various businesses in the environment with the most needs. In this universe not only operates a large group of the best known leaders, but also Catholic and evangelical churches and smaller organizations with which the national government and also that María Eugenia Vidal has worked more and more closely. Power and representation issues in conflict.
If the policy reduces the intermediation of aid, the capital of social leaders suffers. Even if the economic situation does not improve and the possibility of entering the world of formal employment for the most part excluded, which is the basis of its support, continues to move away. Its strength lies in its ability to manage aid and in its mobilization capacity to claim. The first has been checked. The last, for now, remains. For him, they bet with the leaders and what some people offer him to policy in these days. On the Government they suggested Moyano bring resources to maintain the ability to occupy the streets.
The economic crisis and its political impact have a paradoxical effect that also helps explain the construction of new scenarios. The government weakened, but did not lose its strong support, while a new actor had not yet emerged to debate his representatives. Does not show space in conditions to move from the main opposition place to Kirchner.
Polarization continues to order politics. Given the prospect of a competitive ruling party in the 2019 presidential election and Macri was re-elected, the approach that Grabois began with Cristina was followed by other social leaders, including some who had moved with accidents from Kirchnerism. This is the case of the Evita Movement, led by Fernando "Chino" Navarro and Emilio Persico, who recently met and received one more pardon that the former president offered to those who returned to their arms.
A little further, but in the process of approaching and finally meeting, is Barrios de Pie, with Daniel Menéndez in front. Menéndez and Victoria Donda took the first step of Libres del Sur to move towards dialogue with Kirchner, even though they maintained certain differences and questioned Grabois for "being thrown in the head" with Cristina. The divisions only add people who regulate power and reduce the capacity of negotiations from those who want to join without losing their identity and relevance. Grabois, however, tends to confuse everyone, as he did recently. After his persistent defense of the former president, criticized Kirchner's corruption and condemned many of his leaders. Like Lilita Carrió from the other side.
Internal differences, the search for the superiority of each leader and sector, as seen on July 9 last week, had an impact on everyday life and political reality.
The government monitors the social situation every day, seeks to strengthen aid immediately after seeing a complicated situation and preparing to face a hot half-month.
The last week of November, with the peak of the head of state and government of the G-20, can offer everyone an initial view of December awaiting us on the streets. The government dreams that this summit will bring external benefits, with an internal impact to reposition itself. Kirchnerism will be part of those who protest the international alignments of the ruling party and will show, once again, against the great powers. This is not just ideology. Nothing can improve Macri's situation and keep the possibility of the collapse of his management well received. Every time he feels more comfortable among those who are radical.
Moderates on both sides have big challenges and great opportunities to avoid imposing extreme positions. That won't be easy. The order guards at any price and the perpetrators of arson regardless of costs are increasing, not only in Argentina.