Tuesday , January 19 2021

There is a slight increase in expectations, but the economy remains the main concern – 12/09/2018



The worst is over? The definition / issue that afflicts the national government again fails at the end of the year, starting from two matched statisticsOn the one hand, studies have found a a slight increase in expectations economic; but, on the other hand, inflation, tariffs and unemployment, among others, continue to be at the peak of the concerns of the Argentinians.

hunting horn He agreed with five polls that support this peculiarity. They are national studies of the Manage and arrange, Do Alesio IROL – Berenstein, Opinaia, M & R – Inquiry and Ricardo Ruvier and Associazos,

This information is key for several reasons:

1) Between late 2017 and early this year, the decline in economic expectations was the "fact" that accompanied only the collapse of President Mauricio Macri. Can something happen now?

2) Less than nine months from the primary election, people's sense of their future, say analysts, influences the voting trend,

These are the main findings of the research.

Manage and arrange

The National Survey, conducted exclusively by M & F consulting firm hunting horn confirmed the rise in economic expectations in the first week of December.

The work, known as the "Optimism Index," measures the image of Morrisio Macri's government on political and economic issues, both current and future. Recent data have seen a generalized rise in "political optimism." another improvement in expectations for "Economic optimism",

Manage & Fit study exclusively for Clarín.

Manage & Fit study exclusively for Clarín.

Juan Pablo Hedo, of M & F, explains: "On economic issues, the improvement in expectations for the future of the economy continues, which is reflected in an increase of 1.2 percentage points against the economic expectations sub-index. the current economy remains constant at an important anchor in variable prices, which became a 1.8 pessimistic point. "

Manage & Fit study exclusively for Clarín.

Manage & Fit study exclusively for Clarín.

"With regard to policy," Hedo continued, "the expectations were 1.7 points more positive and the assessment of this diagnosis, 1.6." The biggest increase was in the indicators that consider the adoption of the future capacity of the Government to solve the problems (+2.6 points) and the one who asks about the concerns during the management (+2.9).

Do Alesio IROL – Berenstein

The consultant released a few days ago the study he made in November. They were 1439 cases across the countryThe work is called "Social and Political Humor" and looks at various variables. When you read the evolution of economic data, almost everyone had a jumpAlways keep in mind that they come from a very pronounced low level.

A national study by Donald Alessio IROL / Berensztein.

A national study by Donald Alessio IROL / Berensztein.

For example, when people ask how they assess the economic situation compared to last year, those who choose "worse" fall from 92 to 89 points. Or when they are asked how they accept the economic situation will be within a year, optimists rose from 34% to 37% and pessimists fall from 63% to 58%.

This company is one of those that measures the "most important issues". And it is clear superiority of economic issuesThe ranking is characterized by "inflation", "uncertainty in the country's economic situation", "increase in electricity, gas and other increases" and "increase in taxes and tax pressure". Only "fifth" appears "insecurity / crime".

Opinaia

Another respondent who performs monthly "public opinion". Last month they were 3000 cases across the country, And there they registered several improvements for the government.

Examples? For two months (from September to November), the negative rating for the "current economic situation" dropped by six points (from 70% to 64%) and the positive (from 23% to 29%) increased by 6 points. Additional, expectations have recovered: Those who believe the situation will "improve" have risen from 33% to 35% in the last month and those who believe it will "worsen" have fallen from 43% to 38%.

National opinion poll of Opinaia.

National opinion poll of Opinaia.

In any case, she insists: recovery happens in a delicate situation, Opinaia has found, for example, that more than 70% of respondents have reduced "much / sufficient" spending to "go out to eat" or "outings like cinema, theater, recitals." 87% said they "are looking for promotions" to buy, and 80%, which privileges "quality".

M & R – Inquiry

This measurement has a visible face, Gustavo Marangoni, a former employee of science. Between late November and early December, they were released 1,224 cases across the country,

National M & R survey.

National M & R survey.

The consultant does double tracking of appearance in the economy: on the one hand, the staff; on the other hand, the general of the country. Both showed little improvement. The "Personal Economy Index" fell from 31 to 33.9 points; and the "Argentine Economy Index" from 30 to 31.4.

National M & R survey.

National M & R survey.

National M & R survey.

National M & R survey.

The work of this company also shows the predominant role of economic concerns: leading inflation (38%) and unemployment (30%). The third and fourth seem far, uncertainty (15%) and corruption (12%).

Ricardo Ruvier and Associazos

This consultant, who has worked for Kirchner for years and continues to conduct his studies at the Unity of Ciudadan, presented his monthly monitoring days ago, which continued until the first days of December to measure the effect of the G-20. As Clarin said, besides confirming the polarization poll between Christina and Makri, it had a positive impact on the President's image after the summit on an international scale.

National study by Rouvier & Asociados.

National study by Rouvier & Asociados.

Rwyer also recorded a improvement for the government on a sensitive issue: rising prices. Since September, the number of respondents has fallen, which estimates that inflation will "not decline" (from 70.8% to 65.7% in November) and parallel with those who think it will "decline" (from 13.3 % to 17.6%).


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