Year 2018 has already entered its final stretch, so it's a tradition that this month, people will take the opportunity to review the year-end and try to predict major events from the beginning.
This practice is no exception in the sector of the crypto transfer currency, so it is customary for different personalities and business speakers, both inside and outside the ecosystem, to broadcast their forecasts, mostly related to the cost and future of cryptoporeids.
This year's focus is on the price of bulls, given the significant fall of the crypt market in November.
After waiting almost the entire course in 2018 to return prices to the levels reached by the end of 2017 (when BTC reached a peak of nearly $ 20,000) let's see what some analysts expect next year.
Favorable little expectations
The most pessimistic group is Kaspersky Lab security company, which a few days ago released its forecast for 2019, presenting an unfavorable scenario for the ecosystem.
According to the company, the cost of cryptoactives is likely to remain at a low level and that the use of cryptocycles as a means of payment will decrease, believing that the expectations of the advantages of blocking technology will decrease.
The company establishes a direct link between the cost of the crypts and the public interestOn this basis, it ensures that the audience interested in the cryptograms is limited and "after reaching this limit the price will not increase".
In the same direction, Arthur Hayes, BitMEX CEO, said that the bear market, which is characterized by 2018, has led him to change his hopes that BTC will reach $ 50,000 this year. Therefore, in July last year, he said that the cryptic cash flow did not see the worst, as at the end of June the short-term ratio was under $ 6,000. At that time, he predicted that the cryptic rate would reach between $ 5,000 and $ 3,000 this year.
In his latest statements he confirms this the bears market will dominate in 2019., a trend that will even continue until the first months of 2020. Hayes made a reference to BitMEX Research's analysis of the bitcoin's historical performance, where it is estimated that the current bearish period begins on March 12 and probably lasts at least 200 days.
They analyze valleys and peaks
An approach similar to that of Hayes expounds the founder of Morgan Creek Capital Management, Anthony Pompiano, one of those who predicted that the battle would reach $ 50,000 by the end of 2018, although he later admitted his prognosis was wrong.
Based on the valleys and bull peaks in their price history, in one of the ballots posted on his blog last August, Pompliano said that bitcoin could fall first on USD 3,000 before seeing a positive market trend, which it may happen in the third quarter of 2019.
Pompliano explains that bear markets tend to last longer, recalling that the first bear market has lasted 160 days (in 2011) and the second 400 days (2013-2014). respectively estimates that the current bear market, if followed by the historical trend, may last for 650 days,
With similar arguments, the analyst of the exchange market, Vally Wo, explains that BTC is in the valley and will hit in the coming months. To make his forecast, Woo uses the NVT (market value of BTC's daily trading volume in USD) that he created in 2017, and the average price of this cryptoactive for the past 200 days or the sliding average.
Positions that expect a significant increase
In May 2018, fundraiser analyst Thomas H. Lee predicts that by the end of 2019, domestic mining will reach $ 36,000 based on the likely growth of mining infrastructure.
At that time, the Wall Street expert explained that his thesis on the bitcoin price had a risk associated with the trace of the hash index (measuring the processing power of the household network), which could change the price maintenance capacity. However, he believes that the growth of this index may maintain a value of $ 36,000, with a range of $ 20,000 to $ 64,000 until the end of 2019
Although the market remained on a downward trend in the months following this statement, Lee maintained its forecast in July 2018, calculating that by the end of the year the price would be about $ 9,000. and even $ 25,000
Mike Novogrits, a former Goldman Sachs partner and hedge fund manager who founded a Galaxy Digital cryptogram bank, expects another battle for the second quarter of 2019, which can overcome the barrier of $ 10,000.
But he believes that this time the rise will be driven by institutional investors, not by community members. The main reason for this situation is that there will be a FOMO summary case (fear of lack or fear of being abandoned by technological progress) at the level of the institutions.
In the short run, the expectations of the developer were not optimistic about the date of these statements (before the fall in November last year), as he assured that cryptoactive will not reach $ 9,000 again. in 2018
Chief Executive Officer of the research firm Bold new coin, Fran Strajnar, expects the bull's price to reach $ 200,000 not later than 1 January 2020.
In an interview published in May last year, he made his calculations, given that adoption rates are permanent, in a process whose judgment increases at a price that is strongly linked to price.
The same optimism was shown by John McAfee, the founder of the company, after his famous bet last year that bitcoin would be quoted a million dollars in 2020. Although he did not specify a price for 2019, the developer calculated that on 31 December 2019 BTC could be about $ 170,000, which is about to reach a mark of $ 1 million a year later.
In the middle between optimism and pessimism is another group of analysts, such as Todd Gordon, the founder of TradingAnalysis.com, which at different media say, just before the current low level, to wait for the battle to fall, which will take you to $ 4,000. Although it also predicts that it later jumps will return you to $ 10,000 in early 2019,
More moderate expectations were highlighted by the professor of monetary and financial economics at the Complutense University in Madrid, Pedro Durura, who believes it is difficult to predict the evolution of business next year.