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Worries: Reserves 25 are in line and the IMF's last payment has already been burned



As the assets of the monetary authority reached their historical maximum of CZK 77,481 million. They do not cease to fall in the coming days until they reach the level of u $ s 66,994 million this Friday, May 17 (preliminary data).

I mean, The BACP's gross reserves have accumulated 25 consecutive falls, decreasing by USD 10,487 million during this period. dollar (-13.5%), or an average daily decrease of $ 420 million. It is worth recalling that on April 22 they suffered the largest decline in this period due to the payment of Bonar 2024 depreciation and interest for $ 3,861 million. To that should be added the $ 60 million daily bleeding, which the company Guido Sandleris sells every day at the expense of the Treasury.

For now, "The ability of BCRA to intervene, even if it works only on expectations and futures, would allow for a calm exchange rate. What is beginning to worry is the continuing decline in international reserves "experts from Delphos Investment warned this week.

In turn, the financial analyst Christian Boutelar attributed the decline in Central Treasury to the exit of investors from Argentina. "If you have a maturity of $ 1400 million and a resumption of only $ 1,000 million, the $ 400 million difference is not reinvested in the country and it disappears, and one of the reasons for the reserves to fall."

He added that "there are also price differences, for example with swaps, and $ 60 million a day sold by CACIB at the expense of the Treasury, but the fatal number of the fall is not there."

Esteban Domek, director of Invecq, explained this "The decrease in reserves is mainly due to the payment of government debt, capital and interest payments, for about $ 6.7 billion, secondly, for a daily sale to an account and an order by the Ministry of Finance, and to a lesser extent the valuation of the assets in which the reserves are invested ".

On the market, however, some see with some concern this reduction of reserves because it happens without interfering with the BACR on the stock market, using dollars from their treasury, and while the fixed deadlines for private practice are maintained. I mean, two variables that could further accelerate the reduction of reserves.

"In 30 days, we ate all the payments made by the IMF last month, equivalent to 14% of the reserves. Indeed, the dynamics worry. We knew there were debt maturities, but here more dollars go from these duties ""Butler said.

Domecq, unlike Buteler, does not see such a worrying situation at the moment. "It has to be understood that a large part of the dollars that came from the Fund are just to pay for the outflow of government debt as access to finance is lost."

So far, the real exchange rate correction has turned the external imbalance (trade balance, tourism balance, etc.), with which the pressure on the exchange rate is lower. Also, you do not see depositing bank deposits in dollars, which is very important because the $ 30,000 million deposited are $ 16,000 embedded in the BCRA, "says Invecq's director.


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