Tuesday , December 1 2020

Surveillance: Best Year of Execution Steel prices continue to fall! Who presses? _ Price



Original title: CCTV: Best Year of Execution Steel prices continue to fall! Who presses?

Since November, the entire steel market has changed sharply and the fall this week has increased dramatically. The data show that the price of the fittings in key national markets was reduced by 300-750 yuan / ton from November. Accordingly, China's steel industry profits in the first three quarters of this year increased by more than 70% on an annual basis, reversing the slump of profits and even losses over many years, achieving the best performance in history.

In the best year of presentation why steel prices continue to fall? What are the challenges for stabilizing steel prices? In the evening of November 24, CCTV Finance Review was invitedfrom

Li Xinhua, dean of the Institute for Planning and Research of the Metallurgical Industry, and Guo Lian, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of MacroeconomicsGuest Studio, Deep Analysis.

Prices of steel continue to fall Who pushes the hands?

Li Xinchuang: Expectations in the market are not optimistic is the main reason for the fall in steel prices

Li Xinhua, Dean of the Institute for Planning and Research of the Metallurgical Industry:First, the downward pressure on economic growth has increased, especially investment in steel, such as the decline in real estate investment and similar situations in the automotive sector. Secondly, steel prices are at a high level, and companies are trying to expand production to achieve better profits. Some projects for the replacement of production facilities and transformation projects have been put into production and the supply is further expanded. The market has exceeded supply, thirdly, trading has a direct or indirect impact on market expectations. These are the three most important factors that have caused price declines at this stage.

Guo Lian: The pressure is transmitted from downstream to the middle and the top.

China Institute of Macroeconomic Research Institute Guo Lian:From the data on the e-commerce platform in steel trade, the fall in transaction data in November was more obvious. The inventory of large steel companies rose from a downturn and social inventory fell faster, indicating that pressure was passed downstream. Social stocks, that is, traders do not want to buy goods, and the main metallurgical enterprises, respectively, have a stock jump, which leads to price cuts.

Li Xinchuang: Steel prices have a chance to fall, but there is also demand for support

Li Xinhua, Dean of the Institute for Planning and Research of the Metallurgical Industry:First, there is room for a drop in steel prices, but I do not think it will drop significantly. The entire Chinese economy will continue to grow steadily so demand for steel will remain high, second, if the steel price is too low in previous years, this year will be largely needed, but steel Industry is a capital intensive, technology-intensive industry , both for production and for R & D, requires a lot of investment. Therefore, the healthy development of the industry requires reasonable support for profit, which is also internal support.

Steel prices have to stabilize. Where's the challenge?

Li Xinchuang: Production control, stabilizing the market

Li Xinhua, Dean of the Institute for Planning and Research of the Metallurgical Industry:It is important to control production rather than blindly expand production.2016Year to2018National de-capacity1.5Billions of tons at the same time discarded1.4The production capacity of 100 million tons of steel tape together with technological progress in various aspects of industrial labor productivity in recent years has created conditions for improving market price. At the same time, the impetus for increasing production and increasing production has also increased significantly. We must seriously deal with this in regulation.

Guo Lian: To do a good job, adding high-end, landscaping is the cornerstone of stabilizing prices.

China Institute of Macroeconomic Research Institute Guo Lian:I do not really agree with the question of the market, as the steel market is a market for bulls and bear market. The supply-side structural reform is actually a combination of adding and subtracting: removing the low-end, this is the dividend dividend, but it also leads to a price recovery in this circle, which makes many steel companies better ;

Before investigating in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, some steel plants began to update their products during the last round of falling prices. When I come back to visit,11The price of this month fell, they were not affected because the fall is not their main steel output. That is why I believe that this high-quality and green development is an important cornerstone for stabilizing future prices.

Li Xinchuang: High-quality development is the main outlet for steel companies

Li Xinhua, Dean of the Institute for Planning and Research of the Metallurgical Industry:The whole country is turning to high-quality development and the steel industry needs to adapt to this overall trend. First of all, we need to do good work in green and low carbon production. Second, we need to speed up joint restructuring and make production more organized. Intelligent production increases steel competitiveness and efficiency, while increasing standards and branding, so China's steel really improves its operational level.

Guo Liyan: This fall in prices is the inevitable process of moving to the market to dynamically adapt supply and demand.

China Institute of Macroeconomic Research Institute Guo Lian:You do not have to worry if the price will return to the loss of the whole industry a few years ago. Today, the industrial structure of the steel industry and the distribution of all profits are not the same as before. This is the step-by-step result of the structural reform of supply. As a competitive industry, the future of the steel industry, from production to sales, to profits and losses, must be a dynamic adjustment process.

The winning game of the black industry chain Who eats in the mouth of the tiger?

Now everyone in the black industrial chain is concerned about the profits from steel production. Looking at the last year, I saw the price of reinforcement as an example. The price did not look too decent except at the beginning of the year. He just fell in recent times. The price of the hot coil is worse than the armature, why? As some new industries are already released, the future hot wire capacity will exceed 330 million tons. The price of raw materials is high, the steel industry is ready to produce and is willing to pay more for the price of the raw materials. Coke prices have risen steadily, coking coal prices have risen steadily, and scrap prices have just declined. This is a very important phenomenon. This shows that the profit from the short downstream process has been compressed, and the short steel plant has started using raw materials. This logic also applies to coke and iron ore for a while.

Terminal demand, investment growth of 5.7%, real estate growth continued to decline, 9.7%, investment in real estate had some investments in construction and installation, construction investment in September was -3.45%, the former -3.24% , installation construction -7.97% The first is -7.28%. Investments in real estate on steel demand can flow into the sliding phase. From now on, short-term demand for steel is about to enter the off-season, with demand in the middle now weak, and steel dealers are afraid to get the goods, what should I do if I can not sell the goods in the next ten or twenty days? In the long run, the growth rate of long-term investments in fixed assets decreases.

The investment is divided into three parts, real estate, production and infrastructure. This year in the real estate sector have undergone more important changes, with the growth rate of new construction sites and real estate plots being good and Jian's declining. After everyone has acquired the land, they hope to enter the sales process as soon as possible, so we have to have a hurry to enter the sales department to control costs and control progress in construction. Industry in the real estate sector has clearly changed its attitude since June and July this year. It will not begin until May, but several construction sites will begin simultaneously in July. What is the reason? The market may change and the land has to be realized, otherwise the real estate company will lose money in the future. Growth of the property purchase area has changed and the growth rate in October was negative by 10%. As for the current situation, construction of the real estate industry site is relatively normal and some are in a hurry. The search seemed to be good. Until the last week there was a certain drop in demand.

Last year, environmental protection has limitations on construction, but this year is not limited. This year's strong demand in May and July is pretty good, but it is expected that this winter is not excluded from the environment, and this winter does not stop the environment. The real estate industry has an expected turning point. Although accumulated sources of funding now have a relatively stable growth rate, they have found that their expectations for the future have changed through real estate exchange. Such expectations will change the speed of land acquisition and will also change the rate of investment, which will reduce the demand for steel, especially reinforcement.

Production investments are rising and industry will naturally invest when it realizes a certain profit because it wants to expand its production capacity or hopes to make a technological transformation or invest in environmental protection requirements. What do I have to do when the profit drops? Whether the growth rate of investment is stable or unlikely to be unstable and the growth rate of industry profits has started to decline.

The growth of infrastructure investments is stable and the growth rate of investment is very low. In the context of the huge local debt, how enthusiastic is the investment infrastructure of the local government? It's already a sign of a sign. As local authorities are more concerned about liability, if new debts are generated, responsibility can not be given. From a long-term perspective, the growth rate of infrastructure investment will not increase. China is in transition between new and old growth patterns. The transition period is just that the new growth model has not been shaped, and the old growth model has diminished. However, we must have confidence in China's future economy.

The peak season for steel consumption is in the process of being completed and the end is likely to start on the last weekend. From the situation that traders know from steel mills, there is a sign that, for example, traders have demanded steel mills, and steel companies usually have only two specifications or just one specification and subtract them. She appeared in the last week and I wanted everything. Although there was no obvious change in price and quantity, it was suggested that the inventory of the steel industry would have happened.

The apparent consumption in September amounted to 91.55 million, and in September to 92 million. From high frequency data, the national building materials transaction began to decline significantly last week.

Merchants are more cautious because they will leave the season in December. Solar stocks fell, brokers did not get commodities, and stocks of key steel companies increased. There is a fall in the inventory of the steel industry, the fall is a passive decline or an active downturn? If an active downturn means that steel plants are starting to sell, such a sale will not be as supportive as the price but will be pressured. From the Lange Steel Commerce Purchasing Managers index, the interest of everyone is weakening.

Entering immediately in December, when winter storage will begin this year, the attitude of the steel and steel plants is totally the opposite. This spring, the steel trade enterprises have very little money to get their goods. Some time ago they are being exchanged with steel companies. Each of them is seriously wounded. If steel plants do not give a more appropriate price offset this winter, the interest of commercial enterprises for the production of steel in the winter is not high. Together with the problem next year, after we got the steel and sold next year, what about the downstream demand next year, no one dares to speak now. Now that the macro is bearish, in such a difficult situation, the new Politburo meeting does not yet say that the real estate market has begun. In the future, steel products, especially building materials, may be partially suppressed. The overall demand for steel products may be slightly lower over the next year.

Data on the production and sales of excavators in October were relatively good, with signs of decline, with the growth rate of -10%, which is a drop of 10%. This indicates that there are some downstream problems, including other signs.

The production of steel steel production, cast iron production in October was 67.74 million tonnes, and the annual growth was 12.87%, non-ferrous steel increased by 9%, only reinforcement was increased by 0.08% and the production of strands was limited. The proportion of steel production to the production of cast iron is gradually releasing the production of steel plants. The production of steel in the short term is subject to profit constraints. If this part is destroyed, the market will be reduced, which should continue to be tracked.

This year's production limit this spring to the previous few days calls for limited production, but production does not decrease much after the production limit, our production is passive by environmental protection. In the past two years steel companies have also been good, coke plants are also good, investments in environmental protection are relatively large, the steel industry affected by environmental costs may increase 200-300 yuan per tonne of steel. It already has some equipment to meet the requirements. In the second aspect, the profits of the steel industry are kept at a high level and, in the case of environmental sustainability, other technical measures can be taken to increase production by seeing the phenomenon of adding scrap in the short term. Fall and raise.

In the purchasing index of the management of the steel industry, the interest of everyone is very high due to the high profit. When will production be reduced? Only when the profits of the steel companies are compressed to a certain extent will there be a decrease in production. Recently, due to the reduction in profits, environmental protection, the blast furnace operating rate, the average daily production of raw steel, this impact can not change market expectations, especially at the moment, the intermediate demand has become very low. By the end of the year, average demand even turned into an intermediate supply, which is not very useful for the supply-demand relationship.

Това е производството на въжени въжета на основното предприятие и производството на тел, защото маржът на печалбата е относително висок. Обемът на износа на стоманата е относително нисък, тъй като цените на вътрешната стомана са много добри. Отчитайки инвентара на стоманодобивните предприятия, данните, публикувани от Китайската асоциация за желязо и стомана показват, че има натрупани библиотеки. Следващият въпрос е дали е начин да се намалят производствените и застрахователните цени или да се направи продажба? От сегашната гледна точка продукцията не изглежда да спада твърде много, затова процесът на натрупване ще продължи. Ако инвентарът е висок до известна степен, цената може да се колебае надолу, защото стоманата започва да продава.

Вносът на желязна руда остава на високо ниво, но вносът намалява през октомври. Превозите могат да бъдат ограничени от търговските печалби. Ако цената на мината се покачи и разпространението се изтегли, много хора ще бъдат готови да го внесат. Пазарът отразява търговските печалби. От гледна точка на вноса и производството, хората смятат, че няма недостиг на доставки. Къде е целият фокус? Това е игра между мините и стоманодобивните заводи. През септември цените на минералите нараснаха. По това време стоманодобивните предприятия в стоманодобивните заводи бяха запълнени, а броят на дните, налични на 9 ноември, се увеличи до 29 дни, което е на сравнително високо ниво през последните години. След това трябва да обърнем внимание на това, дали ритъмът за попълване на стоманения завод е спрян. Ако се спре, скоро ще бъде отразено в намаляването на пратките. При разглеждането на сегашната ситуация се появиха запаси от стоманена руда. При нормални обстоятелства захранването може да намалее. От сегашната гледна точка тя все още е в относително висока позиция.

Вътрешното производство на мините е сравнително слабо, с малко влияние върху цените на мините. Предимно вносните мини, като се започне от скрап от стомана, когато кратката производствена мощност се компресира до известна степен, започва дългата компресия на процеса, когато цената на желязната руда се компресира.

Доставката на кокс не се колебае и десетте производства са в относително висока позиция. Необходимо е да се обърне внимание на факта, че производителността на коксната инсталация може да бъде ограничена, а степента на използване на капацитета ще намалява всяка година. Ако производственият интерес на стоманодобивните предприятия започне да расте в бъдеще, например през следващата пролет, може да се установи, че доставките на кокс са засегнати. Наскоро стоманодобивните заводи допълват запасите от кокс, а някои от тях са компенсирали някои от тях, някои от които не са напълно възстановени. Сега преговорите за цените са в много деликатен процес, като някои от тях са намалели с 100, а някои стоманодобивни предприятия са намалели с 50%, а сега са в относително балансирано състояние. Тъй като коксът се допълва постепенно, тъй като печалбата от производството на стомана се компресира, тя може да бъде в даден момент в бъдеще, а спот цената на кокс може да падне в средата на следващия месец. Къде е ядрото? Печалбата от производството на стомана е ядрото.

Когато печалбите за производство на стомана започват да намаляват, операциите на стоманодобивните предприятия увеличават производството и намаляват разходите, така че печалбите могат да бъдат донякъде гарантирани, но когато цените на стоманата продължават да спадат, ще видим натиск да се премине нагоре по веригата. Когато печалбите от стомана продължават да падат и да спадат до известна степен, стоманодобивните компании ще намалят производството. Основният фокус на основния пазар в бъдеще е рентабилността на производството на стомана.

От сегашната гледна точка търсенето на стомана ще навлезе в извън сезона, средното търсене отразява междинното предлагане, търговецът отразява междинното предлагане, кога търговецът ще отиде в зимния магазин тази година, само когато цената е правилна. Всяка година няма съхранение през зимата и всяка година има съхранение през зимата. Ключът е, когато цената е правилна. Когато говорихме със северните търговци, понякога 3500, той е подходящ, стоманената мелница е подходяща и не е подходяща, ще играя тук в бъдеще.

Производството на стомана не е толкова добро, колкото се очаква. Въпреки че Китайската асоциация на стоманите публикува някои данни, спадът е много ограничен. В началото на спада на печалбите стоманодобивните предприятия са по-склонни да увеличат производството си, търсенето на суровини е доста добро, но когато печалбите продължават да спадат до известна степен, ще видим печалби, които ще настъпят нагоре по веригата. Кокс, краткосрочно предлагане От сегашната гледна точка предприятията за коксуване рядко разполагат с материални запаси, защото стоманодобивните заводи имат по-голямо търсене на стоки. Второто предприятие за коксуване никога не е имало много инвентаризация, което се определя от способността му да се противопоставя на рисковете. Повечето коксови предприятия не разполагат с капацитет за складиране. Сега има една точка на възникване. Тази повратна точка е, че довършването на стоманодобивната машина може да приключи.

Ние трябва да обърнем внимание на печалбата от производството на стомана.В момента печалбата от производството на стомана намалява.Виждаме, че късометражните стоманодобивни заводи започват да се възползват от скрап отгоре и след това да видят кога цените на стоманата падат бързо. Съдейки по текущата ситуация, производствените предприятия на арматурите с дълги потоци имат очевиден натиск върху материалните запаси, като при намаляването на цените ефективността на производството ще бъде намалена, а спадът в производствените печалби ще доведе до предаване нагоре. Съществуват различни мнения, вероятно в близкото минало, защото извън сезона е дошъл, печалбите в индустриалната верига се свиват. Когато говорихме със стоманени компании наскоро, всеки е песимистичен. Както миналата година, тази година, макро-песимизмът за следващата година ще бъде предаден на индустрията. Спадът в цените на стоманата тази година може да е по-голям от миналата година. Времето за зимното съхранение на търговците ще се появи само когато цената на място спадне по-рязко. (Zhonghui Futures Li Wei)Go back to Sohu and see more

Responsible Editor:

Disclaimer: This article is solely the author, Sohu is the platform for publishing information, and Sohu provides only spatial storage services.

from


Source link