In the next 25 years, Poland's population will decrease by 2.8 million, in the last 25 years it will increase by more than 360 thousand. – the results of the CSO report.
Demographic mortality will have the greatest impact on the unfavorable demographic trend – for example, it is estimated that in 2040 the number of deaths will reach 440,000, ie. the demographic boom of the second half of the 1950s will begin to die, ie. about 60 years old.
However, the current age will reach the current 30/40-year-olds and will then be the largest group. The average age of the population will be 50 years (ie almost 10 years more than at present), which means that every second inhabitant of Poland will be already 50 years old.
The forecast does not predict an increase in births. The assumption is that it implies an increase in fertility, but the number of potential mothers (currently a few-year-old girl) will cause the number of births to be insignificant (for example, about 240,000 in 2040).
The population of the province will decrease the most. Opole and Lublin, Lodz and Silesia, at least Mazovian, Pomeranian and low-sex.
The CSO draws attention to the fact that the course of the observed demographic processes shows that the situation with the population in Poland is difficult. No major changes can be expected in the near future to guarantee a stable demographic development.
The disappearance process has already begun. According to the report at the end of 2018, Poland's population is 38,411 thousand, or 22.4 thousand. less than at the end of 2017. The real rate of increase is negative and amounts to -0.06%, which means that for every 10,000 6 people have disappeared.
In 2017 alone, there was a slight real increase – for every 100,000. 1 person arrived (-0.001%). But after a slight increase in population in 2018, recorded this year, it has dropped. The decrease in population in 2018 is the result of a negative birth rate, which consists in reducing the number of births and at the same time increasing the number of deaths.
The fertility rate, which is low for more than a quarter of a century, will also have a negative impact on future birth rates due to the much smaller number of women of childbearing potential in the future. This phenomenon is further compounded by the high scale of emigration of Poles (especially for young people temporarily residing abroad). The low fertility rate and fertility rate with a prolonged life expectancy will lead to a decrease in labor supply and an increasingly aging population, above all, increasing the number and proportion of the general population in the oldest age groups – so. e. we are still reading the CSO report.