Thursday , December 3 2020

OECD predicts lower global growth in 2019



The OECD forecasts not very bright growth prospects for next year. Do you have to worry? A little because the machine is slowing down all over the world and especially in Europe where the expected growth is needed does not exceed 1,8%This is not good knowledge for France, as France traditionally has an increase in its activity, which is always lower than the average for Europe.

The beautiful alignment of the planets we have seen in recent months: very low interest rates, the price of very low oil, a very busy trade that is shifting. As a result, savings will turn fasterwe will allocate less wealth and so there will be fewer jobs.

This is not exciting, even worrying about the Macron team, which has built all of its five years of vigorous economic activity. If the OECD estimates confirm that the thirteenth month of the additional purchasing power we promised to Gerald Darmanin will evaporate very quickly. We'll see him, but we will not catch him.

In particular, will our purchasing power stagnate?

This is an assumption that should not be overlooked, and that's what most of the "yellow vests" make up and makes us climb into territories. If there is not a sharp acceleration of growth in the coming months, it is clear that this will continue forest groves of protest which for the most part needs to be recalled, is the fruit of five-year-old Sarkozy and the Netherlands,

During this period from 2008 to 2016 the disposable income of French households fell by an average of 444 euros according to INSEE. Only the poorest households approached a little closer.

Can these predictions be reversed?

We have to hope, everything is always possible. The only firepower of a potential crisis is growth. France is very dependent on the environment. This environment is a little sealed: the trade war triggered by Donald Trump, the rise in interest rates in the US, and the current financial market problems that we have seen with stock exchanges.

There are also our borders the unknown Brexit and the Italian pomegranate with a quarrel between Brussels and Rome on budget affairs. In addition, there are French weaknesses that are structural: public spending is not decreasing in France, fueling the deficit that prohibits tax cuts while it is the current challenge.

This will slow down investments because we will consume less and this will affect employment. We are at the periphery of virtuous circles and we must not be expelled.

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