Monday , July 26 2021

The ECB takes care of the risky year



After closing a historic page by stopping paying off its debts, the European Central Bank (ECB) has to preach patience on Thursday, at the beginning of a year, too uncertain to raise the credit price soon.

In addition to the upheaval, the euro will keep key interest rates at its lowest, and will continue to reinvest at maturity EUR 2,600 billion in bonds accumulated in "EQ", the powerful weapon to support the economy that it put at the end of December.

The tension is for the future price development, for the time that is supposed to not move "At least until the summer of 2019", before that, which will be the first cycle of monetary growth since July 2011

The Frankfurt institution may postpone this deadline "Few months" in the spring, but "It will not help", warns Gilles Moeek, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, "As the market is already designing more",

"In order to create a shock, it will be necessary to give the horizon the time even further" he adds, risking provoking a bitter debate in the ECB "Doves" ready to support the economy, and "Hawks" followers of restrictive monetary policy.

Somnobullo?

"Neither the low inflation nor the uncertainty regarding the European economic landscape, nor the US Federal Reserve (Fed) + call-and-see +, invite to speed up the debate on the first price increase in the euro area"Bruno Timber, the economist at Oddo BHF, is late.

If things were left there, Mario Draghi would have been the first president in the short history of the ECB, who had never raised interest when he left office in October after eight years of office.

Mario Dragi, on January 15, admitted to the European Parliament that the economy is progressing worse than expected in the eurozone. He should repeat it on Thursday, highlighting the risks of worsening the economic situation

Mario Dragi, on January 15, admitted to the European Parliament that the economy is progressing worse than expected in the eurozone. He should repeat it on Thursday, highlighting the risks of worsening the economic situation© AFP / Daniel ROLAND Archives

on "Good strategy" the central banker, right now, on "Play cool guy while he's on the alert", and not "Performing impulsive action" the slowdown in the economy, the arsenal is still limited, says Karsten Bessky, ING Diba Bank.

But too much delay, the risk is that the ECB "Managing for the Next Crisis"warns the economist.

On 15 January, Mr. Dragi admitted to the European Parliament that the economy is progressing worse than expected in the eurozone. He should repeat it on Thursday, highlighting the risks of worsening the economy.

A supplementary index will be provided on Thursday by the PMI indices of euro area activity for January, and a general decline has been observed in December.

New relaxation?

Inflation, the only official target set for the ECB, has slowed down as expected. From 1.9% in November, it rose to 1.6% in December in the euro area, mainly due to a fall in energy prices.

Without these data and without food prices, so-called inflation "At the base of" remains unchanged at 1.0%, defeating the expectations of those who, especially in the ECB, hope that rising wages will lead to higher prices.

"Trust +, shown by the Board of Governors that inflation will come closer to the lower target, but close to 2% +, seems more and more like the desired thinking"says Andrew Keningham, economist at Capital Economics.

In addition, instead of specifying the timing of future on-board tours, the Board of Governors "Soon they may have to clear their speech from the past by signaling further monetary policy easing"– he adds.

In the direction of banks, the ECB may discuss on Thursday the conditions of the next wave of giant credits ("TLTRO") to eliminate the risk of lack of liquidity, which implies decisions made in the spring.


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