Monday , September 27 2021

NBS: Reference interest is maintained at 3 percent

When making this decision, the Executive Board takes into account the expected movement of inflation and its factors in the coming period, as well as the impact of recent monetary policy mitigation, the NBS announced.

The Central Bank stated that inflationary pressures remained low in conditions of strong economic growth.

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Inflation continues to move within the target target and in September 2.1 percent, and according to central November projections, will remain low and stable within the target range of 3.0 percent plus / minus 1.5 percentage points yoy until the end of the projection period, or in two year ahead.

NBS reports that the medium-term inflation trend will be determined primarily by gradual growth in aggregate demand.

"The financial and economic sectors expect maintenance of price stability to be achieved in the coming period, as evidenced by their inflation expectations anchoring about the target of 3.0 percent for this year and the previous two years," the statement added.

According to the Executive Board, the impact of previous monetary policy mitigation contributed to the acceleration of economic growth, which this year has grown at the highest level in the past ten years and at 4.5 percent yoy.

They note that a high contribution to economic growth comes from investment, which in the coming period will enable further growth of processing industrial exports.

Investment growth is supported by favorable financing requirements and growth in credit activity. Also, net inflows from foreign direct investment, which more than fully cover the current account deficit, have a positive effect on export growth and a reduction in external imbalances in the medium term.

The Executive Board considers that caution in the implementation of monetary policy is still needed, first of all keeping in mind developments in the international environment.

World oil prices are volatile, so movements are uncertain in the future, with stabilization expected at the end of 2018, and at the end of 2018, and then somewhat lower at the end of 2019. For the most part, due to higher oil prices on the world market this year inflation is also slightly higher in the international environment, said NBS.

It is expected that by the end of the year it is expected to continue to increase the reference interest rates of the United States Federal Reserve System and the completion of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing program, which can reflect capital flows to developing countries.

In addition, the growth of protectionism in international trade has contributed to increased uncertainty in international financial markets, which can also reflect the willingness of smaller investors to invest. Nevertheless, the Executive Committee shows that our economic resilience to the possible negative impacts of the international environment has been due to more favorable indicators and macroeconomic prospects for the coming period.

The Executive Board today adopted the November inflation report, which will be presented to the public on November 16.

The next session of the Executive Board, where decisions about reference interest rates will be made, will take place on 6 December.

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