The threat of French President Macron that will make the UK become an endless customs union if the French fishing demands are not met will only raise opposition to Therese May's deal with Brexit. Image (C) European Union.
– EU leaders sign a deal with Brexit
– Macron's comments make May's job more difficult to sell
– Interest rate dollar for euro @ 1.1296, interest rate from pound to dollar @ 1.2819
The British pound has risen sharply at the start of the new week after the markets have learned news of the weekend that the EU has signed for the Brexit deal achieved by negotiators in the United Kingdom and the European Commission after months of talks.
Predictably, however, the profits soon faded from the major challenges facing the British currency, which eventually remained unchanged: the deal would hardly pass through the UK Parliament in its current form and months of uncertainty, therefore, still ahead .
We see small chances of sustainable recovery until clarity emerges.
"The pressure from British banks must continue to remain and the volatility will remain high this week," said Joseph Capus, a strategist at British Bank of Australia"The next big hurdle is the deal with Brexith to be approved by the UK House of Commons, a vote scheduled for Dec. 10. However, it seems Britain's Prime Minister Teresa May will fight to get a majority to stop the deal "Brexit" House of Commons in the United Kingdom. "
The fact that the deal is even more difficult is French President Emanuel Macron, who – quite unusual – said that France would use the threat of keeping Britain in a permanent customs union if the UK did not agree with the French demands for their fisherman to maintain access to UK waters,
"We as 27 have a clear position for fair competition, for fish and for EU regulatory autonomy, and this is part of our position for future talks," Macron said after a meeting of EU leaders in Brussels.
The President assumed that without sufficient progress in trade, the deterrence plan would have to be implemented to avoid a rigid border in Ireland, including a temporary customs union for the whole of the United Kingdom.
"This is a lever because it is in our mutual interest to have this future relationship." I can not imagine that Theresa May's or her supporters' wish is to stay in the long term in a customs union but instead (instead of) future relationship that solves this problem, "says Macron.
This shows us that countries can simply use the threat of veto to get their individual discounts from the UK.
Spain wishes to exercise further control over Gibraltar and the veto threat that they also have, puts the UK into something in a weak position in the second round of talks.
That if the deal with Breixet really goes through the UK Parliament, of course.
There are reasons to believe that the deal will not go with Macron's comments, which are likely to cause opposition to the plan.
However, the prime minister tried to downplay Macron's comments while selling the "best possible deal" available to parliament.
"It will not happen," Theresa May said in response to Macron's comments in her conversation with the House of Commons at 26 am.
Moreover, the hopes that other parliamentarians may vote for the deal in May to avoid "hard" bruxism seem less likely to hope that the "third time" will eventually emerge in which Britain remain in the European Union.
However, the path to the so-called "people's voice" for the remaining EU members seems at this point to be rather difficult, and for us the extension of Article 50 – the effective placement of the ice-withdrawal process – seems to be the most likely outcome.
3% increase or 3% fall
According to the CBA, their working premise is that the House of Commons will still accept the Brexit Bill on December 10 (or when the vote is being held).
If the House of Commons adopts the Brexitt bill, we expect the GBP to enjoy a limited rally of about 1 to 3%.
"But if the House of Commons does not accept the Brexitt bill, we expect GBP to drop by at least 3%," says Capouro.
The exchange rate "pound-euro" is currently quoted at 1.1295 on the interbank market, placing it more or less in the longer term and at levels consistent with ongoing Brexit uncertainty.
Those wishing to make an international payment should note that the rates charged by large street banks are in the region 1.10-1.1090, while the rate charged by independent currency providers is in the region 1.1180-1.1215.
Those who want to pay are advised to talk to independent specialists to provide a competitive rate that provides significantly more currency while learning how to protect against potentially unfavorable sterling movements in the coming weeks.
The interest rate per pound is 1.2822 on interbank markets, with the largest banks offering 1.2470-1.2563. Independent vendors offer rates at odds 1.27-1.2730.
The prime minister will now want to sell his deal to the country, but in the process it will claim that the public just wants to move forward and reject the deal will only invite more uncertainty.
It is difficult to say whether the value of the pound reflects the belief that it will succeed or whether it actually reflects the view that it will fail and remain months of uncertainty.
Whatever the case, Stirling seems remarkably stable in the short run, despite the headlines and several analysts who have heard that we will actually see better levels in the coming days. "We suspect that markets are beginning to suffer from the fatigue of the title, suggesting that EURGBP may be limited to the familiar 0.87 / 0.91 range," says a note from TD Securities,
"GBPUSD should be detained until parliamentary arithmetic becomes clearer, which may not be the case before the first vote." Therese May will be difficult to achieve. The political uncertainty in the UK seems confident that for the moment it will keep the Sterling hood, says Neil Wilson, an analyst Markets.com,