Wednesday , June 16 2021

Asdrúbal Oliveros predicted an increase in the parallel dollar

April 22, 2019, 01:31
Updated April 22, 2019, 1:44 pm

Asbubal Oliveros, a Venezuelan economist, predicted Friday an increase in the parallel dollar due to inflation registered in the country. "In this context, the exchange rate can only rise," he added.

He pointed out that the price of the currency would increase, despite the measures adopted by Nicholas Maduro regarding the ordinary legal reserve and marginal reserves.

"The parallels are subject to a hyperinflationary environment, a brutal decline in oil production that affects the flow of dollars, a fiscal deficit funded entirely by monetary expansion and a brutal decline in the supply of sovereigns," the analyst said. in Instagram.

This is the mandatory question today … What will happen to the parallel exchange rate? The first thing many people forget is that the exchange rate is a price for the economy that is very sensitive to the expectations of agents and reflects the perception of risk in the short and medium term. Structurally, the exchange rate will continue to rise because the Venezuelan economy is full of imbalances that mostly highlight hyperinflation and which forces us to conceal, defend little justice. But there are a few additional elements that indicate that the exchange rate will continue to rise: as a result of the fact that inflation has fallen faster than the devaluation in recent months, the exchange rate has risen (in a conversational way, ie cheap ). , below its equilibrium value) makes this phenomenon more economical than the national one … Have an idea when we compare what the change that puts us in "balance" with our business partners is to be neither costly nor cheap , at the end of March its value is BGN 30000 (economists use an econometric model of the real exchange rate). Thus, the rate of change around Bs 5mil is below its equilibrium value and therefore, we say there is room to continue to grow. The model does not tell you how fast the dynamic equilibrium is achieved (it changes over time and inflation), but it helps you understand that the exchange rate will continue its upward path. #economy #asdrubaloliveros #ecoanalitica #venezuela

A publication shared by Asdrúbal R. Oliveros P. (@aroliveros)

Source link