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The percentage of fixed retail installments now exceeds the expected inflation



The local financial system has a combination of factors that usually do not happen very often: the interest rate paid by fixed retail installments will earn the expected inflation.

This is one of the reasons why Argentinian savers often find it difficult to keep pesos. Once they know the number of IGCs in April, the city hopes that inflation will continue to decline this month and is around 3.2%.

So things, the interest rate paid by banks for 30-day deposits, will prove to be positive for this saver who puts it in place this month. On Wednesday, BACR President Guido Sandler said: "The average real rate that a saver who has been given a fixed term in these eight months is also positive, which means he earned inflation. and no exception. "

If the average is taken, the percentage of these deposits will reach 4.15% over the next 30 days.

The calculations of the president of the monetary authority correspond to the fixed wholesale conditions, which exceed $ 20 million. However, following the reaction of the banks that went out to better remunerate the fixed deadlines for non-clients, and thus reduce the difference the Central Bank pays for Leliq, if the downward trend in inflation is confirmed in May, this percentage The real a positive result would also reach deposits up to $ 100,000.

According to the average value produced by the Central Bank, the average flat rate of retail installments is 50.61%. However, once BAPR has urged entities to allow fixed deadlines for non-online customers, there are banks that reward them up to 56% per year. If the average is taken, the return on these deposits will reach 4.15% over the next 30 days, which is almost one point above the expected inflation.

This "reward" for making a monthly placement reaches 4.6% if it is done in BICE, for example, which until yesterday was the bank that best paid those deposits.

At the beginning of April, with expectations (not yet realized, but at the time of decision on the deposit we have only forecasts) inflation of 4%, the average retail price pays 3.5% per month.

Percentage of the dollar

"In addition, the Argentinian savers account is also strongly linked to the dollar," said GMA Capital economist Neri Pershichini. "Stock exchange stability favors investment in pesos, but at a time of uncertainty the interest rate loses traction," he said.

While positive performance is good news for savers, it is not enough to pave the way for disinflation. "Today, the effect of high interest rates is insignificant to the fall in inflation, we are staggered for a long time and with the prospect of high rates, and today the problem is a lack of confidence," said Gabriel Selpo, of Ellipse.

Overall, in order to obtain a guaranteed return on inflation, there are only fixed UVA conditions. "If a person has a traditional fixed term in May to beat an inflation-related one (which has a minimum duration of 90 days), he needs inflation in May and June to be less than or equal to 3.5% to equalize Nicholas Rivas, Estudio Kotsias analyst.

While the market is excited by a slowdown in monthly inflation in the near future, there is an increase in demand for fixed deadlines after rising interest rates, which is introducing the possibility of making those deposits in businesses you are not a customer of. In the first week, the stock jumped $ 1,000 million. Yesterday Banco Nacion reported that more than 16,800 deals were made in this way, for an amount over $ 2,777 million in exchange for a rate of 55%.

Anna Klara Pedodi


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