Driven by a shale boom, the United States is already producing more crude oil from Russia or Saudi Arabia, which until recently competed for the first time.
By the middle of the year, the United States will do better.
At that time, Saudi Arabia could increase production to its maximum capacity of 12 million b / d, exceeding 11.8 million b / d, produced by the United States in December, according to the International Energy Agency.
Soon even that will not be enough.
Crude oil production in the United States will increase by 1.1 million barrels a day this year, according to the IEA, which believes the US will exceed the maximum level of Saudi Arabia over the next six months.
"By the middle of the year, crude oil production in the US is likely to be larger than the capacity of Saudi Arabia or Russia," a report released Friday in Paris said.
However, this additional magnitude will probably not have a greater impact on prices. As only the Saudis remain ready to maintain their production capacity when there is too much oil in the market, the kingdom will retain its unique position as the so-called variable producer.
The agency maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 to 1.4 million barrels per day (mb / d), according to its January report.
"Our estimates of global oil demand growth in 2018 and 2019 remain at 1.3 mb / d and 1.4 mb / d respectively," the document posted on the agency's website said.
In this way, oil demand in the world will reach 100.7 M Barrels a day this year.
In addition, the agency increased the supply growth forecast for non-OPEC countries in 2019 by 0.1 mb / d to 1.6 mb / d, so the cumulative supply of the oil market is expected. of all non-member countries, it reaches 62.1 mb / d.
Last December, OPEC agreed to reduce the pumping of hydrocarbons by 800,000 barrels a day for six months from January.